We have convincing empirical evidence that (particularly poor) resource-dependent states are more frequently afflicted by social upheaval. But under what conditions do natural resources trigger intrastate conflict? To assess this question, my colleagues and I analyzed a range of potential contextual factors: countries’ electoral and political systems, ethnic diversity, and resource ownership patterns.

Ethnic fractionalization and exclusion seem to increase the risk of armed conflict onset within oil-abundant states. We found that the combination of oil and a shared identity helps overcome the collective action problems associated with rebellion, thereby spurring ethnic violence. In another paper, I examined political conditions leading to armed conflict within petrostates and showed that – in the presence of natural resources like oil – a non-competitive multi-party system prompts social unrest.

Another important contextual factor is how states regulate access to their natural resources. My country-level analysis, for example, indicates that particularly the extraction of oil and gas by national oil companies influences countries’ risk of facing armed conflict.